http://politics.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2010/12/2/delaying-tax-vote-could-crash-stock-market.html
at this point, any number of rationalizations could "crash" the stock market. the market is probably going to crash anyways, based on investors' extreme optimistic sentiment. There are so many bulls already invested that it will be difficult to find new money to drive the market higher. And those already invested have done so with a high degree of leverage that requires higher returns than the market can continue to provide for much longer.
social mood in a downward wave of major degree predisposes politicians (and their political bases) to reject compromises and coincidentally predisposes equities to "crash". moderates will appeal to compromise and blame a "crash" on lack of compromise. true believers will reject a compromise and claim that the crash came because the compromise was a lousy deal.
notice that Obama, not Congress, came out proposing a deal (in principle, no actual legislative language yet). and in his statement he fretted that there are those on both his left and his right that are reluctant to deal. (Obama is playing the moderate triangulator, just like Clinton did after midterm losses in 1994.)
whatever you think of Obama and the supposed deal on extending tax cuts, the overall picture is that Obama is trying to play the moderate, while legislators of both parties are trying to appeal to true believers. moderates' time to shine is in upward trending cycles, while true believers prevail in downward trending cycles. since our EW analysis predicts that 2011-12 will be a downward primary wave 3 of downward cycle degree C of downward supercycle degree A, it is likely that Obama will not successfully endear himself to the electorate as a moderate.
that Obama would attempt this strategy is socionomically understandable as the upward primary degree 2 reaches its climax. but contrary analysts understand that the trend will not continue. and a strong downward wave, favoring confrontation over moderation, will reassert itself from now until his (failed) reelection attempt.
One indicator of Obama's trouble is (and will increasingly be) the prominence of "Miss Me Yet?". Yes, George, we do miss you badly. Now more than ever!!
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Debating An Atheist: The Burden of Proof
Debating An Atheist: The Burden of Proof
The entire myth of evolution is simply an attempt by those who hate God to attempt to shift the burden of proof. "They say to wood, thou art my father, and to stone, thou hast brought me forth. They have turned their backs to me and not their faces; yet when they are in trouble, they say, come and save us." (Jeremiah 2:27)
"For since the creation of the world God's invisible qualities -- his eternal power and divine nature -- have been clearly seen, being understood from what has been made, so that men are without excuse." (Romans 1:20)
"The heavens declare the glory of God; the skies proclaim the work of his hands." (Psalm 19:1)
The entire myth of evolution is simply an attempt by those who hate God to attempt to shift the burden of proof. "They say to wood, thou art my father, and to stone, thou hast brought me forth. They have turned their backs to me and not their faces; yet when they are in trouble, they say, come and save us." (Jeremiah 2:27)
"For since the creation of the world God's invisible qualities -- his eternal power and divine nature -- have been clearly seen, being understood from what has been made, so that men are without excuse." (Romans 1:20)
"The heavens declare the glory of God; the skies proclaim the work of his hands." (Psalm 19:1)
Friday, August 6, 2010
Another disappointing jobs report
"What an ugly report today!" says Tom Keene from Bloomberg Surveillance this morning.
"the headline jobs loss number (-131K) was worse than expected, as was private sector job creation."
www.businessinsider.com/july-employment-data-2010-8
The US lost 131,000 jobs in June,
according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The private sector in the US added 71,000 jobs, weaker than a consensus expectation of 90,000, and weaker than the month before.
June's report was also revised to reflect even greater job losses than previously reported. 221,000 jobs were lost, not just 125,000.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/jobs-decrease-by-131000-rise-by-12000.html
BAD NEWS: The civilian employment population is falling again after a brief uptick. 58% of Americans support the entire population.
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c5c1f8c7f8b9adb5e0b0300-590-/bad-news-the-civilian-employment-population-is-falling-again-after-a-brief-uptick-58-of-americans-support-the-entire-population.jpg
The high-paying information industry that produces so many jobs in the U.S.A. "continues to melt away."
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c5c1f877f8b9afd6f8d0000-590-/the-information-industry-continues-to-melt-away.jpg
It's not just those out of work for long durations; more people are recently losing their jobs.
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c5c1f867f8b9a1b5f130200-590-/bad-news-those-unemployed-five-weeks-or-less-has-jumped-again.jpg
The total number of employees in the US has stagnated during the "recovery", even as the working-age population increases.
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c5c1f877f8b9ab25e0e0400-590-/as-you-can-see-the-total-employees-measure-has-totally-stagnated-not-rebounded.jpg
Total civilian participation rate in the workforce is still going down.
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c5c1f887f8b9ab94f8d0000-590-/total-civilian-participation-rate-in-the-workforce-still-going-down.jpg
Jobs in the financial sector continue to disappear.
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c5c1f897f8b9aaa5d540900-590-/bad-or-good-news-financial-services-jobs-continue-to-go-away.jpg
Canada announced earlier today that it had lost 139,000 full-time jobs.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/139000-full-time-jobs-disappear/article1664046/
It was the first time this year that Canada had lost jobs, further proof that Canada's housing/financial bubble is bursting... at a time when America is slipping into the next wave down ("double dip" depression) and China and Australia are both nursing housing-financial bubbles in varying stages of going bust.
Norway has already slipped into economic contraction again. Today's jobs report (and today's revisions to previous jobs reports) suggest that for the US under Obama it's just a matter of time.
http://english.alrroya.com/content/norway-manufacturing-slumps-back-contraction
The bond market also made it clear that they did not expect economic growth to return. Demand for "risk-free" "safe" investment returns (treasuries) was so strong that the two year treasury fell below .50% for the first time ever. The ten year note sank to 2.84%. The spread between the 10 year and 30 year yields was the widest since 1992.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/two-year-treasury-yields-drop-below-5.html
The currency markets also reflected pessimism. The dollar had slipped to its lowest against the Japanese Yen since the mid 1990s. The dollar index fell. It now takes more than $1.32 to equal a euro.
The weak job reports also raise the probability that the stock markets are inflated and overbought and due for another correction. There is an almost absurd amount of irrational exuberance propping up stock prices, while the bond market more accurately predicts years of anemic growth. Today stock slipped as expectations were punctured by reality.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100806-712323.html
"There wasn't much to celebrate in the July labor market report," says Michael Feroli, economist at JPMorgan Chase, "private employment increased by only 71,000 and, after downward revisions, is rising on average only 51,000 over the past three months, well below what is needed to absorb the flow of new workers into the labor force."
"Normally that would be expected to lift the unemployment rate, Feroli says, but because so many potential workers have been discouraged and dropped out of the labor force, the measured unemployment rate actually dropped over the last three months and held steady at 9.5%." (Forbes.com)
Despite the statistical trick of not counting discouraged workers, it has now been 15 months in a row that the U3 unemployment rate has been reported above 9%, the longest stretch since the early 1980s.
http://www.forbes.com/2010/08/06/briefing-markets-unemployment-labor-aig-kraft.html
"President" Obama continues to duck his responsibility for creating and prolonging this economic mess. Sarah Palin shares our frustration that Obama continues to lie to the American people without being challenged by the press for his deception and hypocrisy.
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=415377263434
2012 can't come fast enough.
"the headline jobs loss number (-131K) was worse than expected, as was private sector job creation."
www.businessinsider.com/july-employment-data-2010-8
The US lost 131,000 jobs in June,
according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The private sector in the US added 71,000 jobs, weaker than a consensus expectation of 90,000, and weaker than the month before.
June's report was also revised to reflect even greater job losses than previously reported. 221,000 jobs were lost, not just 125,000.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/jobs-decrease-by-131000-rise-by-12000.html
BAD NEWS: The civilian employment population is falling again after a brief uptick. 58% of Americans support the entire population.
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c5c1f8c7f8b9adb5e0b0300-590-/bad-news-the-civilian-employment-population-is-falling-again-after-a-brief-uptick-58-of-americans-support-the-entire-population.jpg
The high-paying information industry that produces so many jobs in the U.S.A. "continues to melt away."
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c5c1f877f8b9afd6f8d0000-590-/the-information-industry-continues-to-melt-away.jpg
It's not just those out of work for long durations; more people are recently losing their jobs.
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c5c1f867f8b9a1b5f130200-590-/bad-news-those-unemployed-five-weeks-or-less-has-jumped-again.jpg
The total number of employees in the US has stagnated during the "recovery", even as the working-age population increases.
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c5c1f877f8b9ab25e0e0400-590-/as-you-can-see-the-total-employees-measure-has-totally-stagnated-not-rebounded.jpg
Total civilian participation rate in the workforce is still going down.
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c5c1f887f8b9ab94f8d0000-590-/total-civilian-participation-rate-in-the-workforce-still-going-down.jpg
Jobs in the financial sector continue to disappear.
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c5c1f897f8b9aaa5d540900-590-/bad-or-good-news-financial-services-jobs-continue-to-go-away.jpg
Canada announced earlier today that it had lost 139,000 full-time jobs.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/139000-full-time-jobs-disappear/article1664046/
It was the first time this year that Canada had lost jobs, further proof that Canada's housing/financial bubble is bursting... at a time when America is slipping into the next wave down ("double dip" depression) and China and Australia are both nursing housing-financial bubbles in varying stages of going bust.
Norway has already slipped into economic contraction again. Today's jobs report (and today's revisions to previous jobs reports) suggest that for the US under Obama it's just a matter of time.
http://english.alrroya.com/content/norway-manufacturing-slumps-back-contraction
The bond market also made it clear that they did not expect economic growth to return. Demand for "risk-free" "safe" investment returns (treasuries) was so strong that the two year treasury fell below .50% for the first time ever. The ten year note sank to 2.84%. The spread between the 10 year and 30 year yields was the widest since 1992.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/two-year-treasury-yields-drop-below-5.html
The currency markets also reflected pessimism. The dollar had slipped to its lowest against the Japanese Yen since the mid 1990s. The dollar index fell. It now takes more than $1.32 to equal a euro.
The weak job reports also raise the probability that the stock markets are inflated and overbought and due for another correction. There is an almost absurd amount of irrational exuberance propping up stock prices, while the bond market more accurately predicts years of anemic growth. Today stock slipped as expectations were punctured by reality.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100806-712323.html
"There wasn't much to celebrate in the July labor market report," says Michael Feroli, economist at JPMorgan Chase, "private employment increased by only 71,000 and, after downward revisions, is rising on average only 51,000 over the past three months, well below what is needed to absorb the flow of new workers into the labor force."
"Normally that would be expected to lift the unemployment rate, Feroli says, but because so many potential workers have been discouraged and dropped out of the labor force, the measured unemployment rate actually dropped over the last three months and held steady at 9.5%." (Forbes.com)
Despite the statistical trick of not counting discouraged workers, it has now been 15 months in a row that the U3 unemployment rate has been reported above 9%, the longest stretch since the early 1980s.
http://www.forbes.com/2010/08/06/briefing-markets-unemployment-labor-aig-kraft.html
"President" Obama continues to duck his responsibility for creating and prolonging this economic mess. Sarah Palin shares our frustration that Obama continues to lie to the American people without being challenged by the press for his deception and hypocrisy.
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=415377263434
2012 can't come fast enough.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Homebuilder admits home building not likely to recover
homebuilder D.R. Horton had their conference call with investors. The homebuilder confirmed what free-market economists had said all along: the tax credit was a failure and we would be better off without another such gimmick.
28% of "buyers" canceled their orders. D.R. Horton's CEO is not surprised by these horrid numbers and expresses relief that the distortion was not actually worse. "I was surprised it only increased to 28%."
Looking forward, "The next 12 to 24 months will be challenging in the homebuilding industry."
As unemployment and lagging income catch up with consumers and businesses, we may see more defaults and bankruptcies. Personal bankruptcies rose again in July, to the highest rate since 2005.
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/08/personal-bankruptcy-filings-july-2010.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/dr-horton-conference-call-comments-no.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/personal-bankruptcy-filings-up-9-in.html
28% of "buyers" canceled their orders. D.R. Horton's CEO is not surprised by these horrid numbers and expresses relief that the distortion was not actually worse. "I was surprised it only increased to 28%."
Looking forward, "The next 12 to 24 months will be challenging in the homebuilding industry."
As unemployment and lagging income catch up with consumers and businesses, we may see more defaults and bankruptcies. Personal bankruptcies rose again in July, to the highest rate since 2005.
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/08/personal-bankruptcy-filings-july-2010.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/dr-horton-conference-call-comments-no.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/personal-bankruptcy-filings-up-9-in.html
Crime worst on Mexican Border; Democrats attack America instead of defending America
The US judicial districts with the most crime are ALL on the Mexican border. No district has more crime than the five districts on the Mexican border. Doesn't this prove the imperative of securing the border, identifying illegal immigrants, and detaining illegal invaders?
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/70489
Arizona should be praised for offering their assistance to enforce existing federal law. Instead, Obama and the anti-American nutjobs in the Democratic party are actually trying to block Arizona's praiseworthy efforts!?!
Pinal County (AZ) Sheriff Bebau is absolutely correct: the federal government has become our enemy!
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/70324
The Immigration and Customs Enforcement union agrees that the government is much too focused on promoting amnesty for criminal aliens, rather than enforcing the law:
"Senior ICE leadership dedicates more time to campaigning for immigration reforms aimed at large scale amnesty legislation, than advising the American public and Federal lawmakers on the severity of the illegal immigration problem, and the need for more manpower and resources within the ICE ERO to address it. ICE ERO is currently overwhelmed by the massive criminal alien problem in the United States resulting in the large-scale release of criminals back into local communities."
Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/immigration-enforcement-union-took-a-no-confidence-vote-in-its-leadership-99976699.html
And not only is the Obama Injustice Department blocking Arizona from actually pursuing justice, but the nutroots of the left are actually attempting to foment a boycott against Arizona. The vindictiveness of the left threatens to destroy the republic and unravel our union. Not since the Civil War has any such effort against a sovereign state been initiated from within our republic. The left is playing a dangerous game... and forcing us to live with the results of their lunacy.
Boycott sets dangerous precedent - violates sovereignty, Sets up war between states.
http://www.boycottwatch.org/misc/Arizona1.htm
Boycott Watch predicted the Arizona boycott would fail, and early results prove we are right!
http://www.boycottwatch.org/misc/Arizona2.htm
All politics aside, President Obaba has wrongly justified the Arizona boycott. The Arizona boycott is dangerous for America.
http://www.boycottwatch.org/misc/Arizona3.htm
Arizona Deserves Better Treatment Than Cuba
http://www.boycottwatch.org/misc/Arizona4.htm
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/70489
Arizona should be praised for offering their assistance to enforce existing federal law. Instead, Obama and the anti-American nutjobs in the Democratic party are actually trying to block Arizona's praiseworthy efforts!?!
Pinal County (AZ) Sheriff Bebau is absolutely correct: the federal government has become our enemy!
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/70324
The Immigration and Customs Enforcement union agrees that the government is much too focused on promoting amnesty for criminal aliens, rather than enforcing the law:
"Senior ICE leadership dedicates more time to campaigning for immigration reforms aimed at large scale amnesty legislation, than advising the American public and Federal lawmakers on the severity of the illegal immigration problem, and the need for more manpower and resources within the ICE ERO to address it. ICE ERO is currently overwhelmed by the massive criminal alien problem in the United States resulting in the large-scale release of criminals back into local communities."
Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/immigration-enforcement-union-took-a-no-confidence-vote-in-its-leadership-99976699.html
And not only is the Obama Injustice Department blocking Arizona from actually pursuing justice, but the nutroots of the left are actually attempting to foment a boycott against Arizona. The vindictiveness of the left threatens to destroy the republic and unravel our union. Not since the Civil War has any such effort against a sovereign state been initiated from within our republic. The left is playing a dangerous game... and forcing us to live with the results of their lunacy.
Boycott sets dangerous precedent - violates sovereignty, Sets up war between states.
http://www.boycottwatch.org/misc/Arizona1.htm
Boycott Watch predicted the Arizona boycott would fail, and early results prove we are right!
http://www.boycottwatch.org/misc/Arizona2.htm
All politics aside, President Obaba has wrongly justified the Arizona boycott. The Arizona boycott is dangerous for America.
http://www.boycottwatch.org/misc/Arizona3.htm
Arizona Deserves Better Treatment Than Cuba
http://www.boycottwatch.org/misc/Arizona4.htm
Friday, July 30, 2010
Obama does not deserve reelection. Voters prefer a Republican.
Obama's approvals have fallen to their lowest ever in the July Q poll.
48% disapprove - 44% approve
By 48 - 40 percent, voters say Obama does not deserve reelection in 2012.
39% prefer a Republican in 2012; only 36% prefer Obama.
Independent voters disapprove of Obama 52 - 38 percent
Independents say 37 - 27 percent they would vote for a Republican in 2012.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1478
Our long national nightmare may soon end January 2013
48% disapprove - 44% approve
By 48 - 40 percent, voters say Obama does not deserve reelection in 2012.
39% prefer a Republican in 2012; only 36% prefer Obama.
Independent voters disapprove of Obama 52 - 38 percent
Independents say 37 - 27 percent they would vote for a Republican in 2012.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1478
Our long national nightmare may soon end January 2013
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Democrats losing Independents
Republicans are supporting Republicans and Democrats are supporting Democrats, but the Independents who determine elections are breaking decidedly towards the Republicans (even in Democratic polls).
Given the roughly equal numbers of registered Democrats and registered Republicans, independents are the closest measure of the median (center) position of political thought in America. (Since 40% of Americans are conservative and only 20% of Americans are "liberal" or leftist, the remaining 40% that identify as "moderate" do not straddle the center, but rather skew to the left.)
http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/w738nquazegahfq5xajfxa.gif
As Democrats and Republicans have similar proportions nationally, independents are a far more center-based group than left-leaning "moderates".
http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/b8scyp6bruqgez4snjxqdg.gif
On Gallup's generic congressional ballot question, Independents (among registered voters) would prefer to vote for a Republican rather than a Democrat by a margin of 47-34. Among all registered voters, voters would prefer a Republican by a margin of 49-43. This represents the highest preference for Republicans in 48 years of Gallup polling history. Even in 1994 and 2002, the margin was only 5 points in Republicans' favor among registered voters. (Often registered voters skew more Democratic than those who actually show up on election day, especially in non-presidential years. Hence, the preferred method among many pollsters is to screen for LIKELY voters, not simply registered voters. Likely voters tend to lean even more pro-Republican than do registered voters.) Evidence suggests that 2010 may be even a more pro-Republican year than 1994 or 2002 or any other year since Gallup began asking this question in 1962.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/127439/Election-2010-Key-Indicators.aspx
But does the mood favor not just Republicans in general, but specific Republicans in specific races? Congressional polling is harder to find and is not often released publicly this far in advance of election day. But numerous statewide senate polls have been conducted and do confirm a shifting of the general electorate and Independents in particular toward Republicans.
Using the most recent publicly available statewide polling data from one particular Democratic polling firm (Public Policy Polling), we find that Republicans more often than not lead Democrats among independents -- sometimes by commanding double-digit leads.
Among independents:
Ky: Rand Paul (R) leads Conway (D) 44-29
MO: Roy Blunt (R) leads Carnahan (D) 47-35
NC:
Burr (R) leads Cunningham (D) 41-32
Burr (R) leads Marshall (D) 40-38
CO:
Bennet (D) leads Norton (R) 42-40
Buck (R) leads Bennet (D) 40-39
Bennet (D) leads Wiens (R) 39-35
Norton (R) leads Romanoff (D) 40-35
Buck (R) leads Romanoff (D) 36-34
Romanoff (D) leads Wiens (R) 35-33
OH:
Portman (R) leads Fisher (D) 37-25
Portman (R) also led Brunner (D) 37-25
PA:
Sestak (D) leads Toomey (R) 35-34
Toomey (R) led Specter (D) 41-38
IL: Kirk (R) leads Giannoulias (D) 33-30
NV:
Lowden (R) leads Reid 62-27
Tarkanian (R) leads Reid 55-30
Lowden (R) leads Berkley 55-24
Tarkanian (R) leads Berkley 53-27
Lowden (R) leads Goodman 48-30
Tarkanian (R) leads Goodman 50-30
Lowden (R) leads Miller 51-19
Tarkanian (R) leads Miller 50-18
AR:
Boozman (R) leads Lincoln 66-20
Boozman (R) leads Halter 56-18
NH:
Ayotte (R) leads Hodes (D) 49-34
Binnie (R) leads Hodes (D) 46-36
Binder (R) leads Hodes (D) 39-37
Lamontagne (R) ties Hodes 38-38
FL: Crist (I) 35 - Rubio (R) 24 - Meek (D) 22
Based on this sample of polls, top priorities for conservatives, Republicans, and friends of liberty would be Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey) and Illinois (Mark Kirk) and Colorado (nominee yet to be determined). Mark Kirk may not be the ideal candidate, but we are so close to electing a new Republican majority in BOTH houses of Congress that we need to keep our eyes on the prize. As flawed a candidate as Kirk may be, he is so much better than the mob banker Alexi Giannoulias.
http://www.toomeyforsenate.com
Given the roughly equal numbers of registered Democrats and registered Republicans, independents are the closest measure of the median (center) position of political thought in America. (Since 40% of Americans are conservative and only 20% of Americans are "liberal" or leftist, the remaining 40% that identify as "moderate" do not straddle the center, but rather skew to the left.)
http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/w738nquazegahfq5xajfxa.gif
As Democrats and Republicans have similar proportions nationally, independents are a far more center-based group than left-leaning "moderates".
http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/b8scyp6bruqgez4snjxqdg.gif
On Gallup's generic congressional ballot question, Independents (among registered voters) would prefer to vote for a Republican rather than a Democrat by a margin of 47-34. Among all registered voters, voters would prefer a Republican by a margin of 49-43. This represents the highest preference for Republicans in 48 years of Gallup polling history. Even in 1994 and 2002, the margin was only 5 points in Republicans' favor among registered voters. (Often registered voters skew more Democratic than those who actually show up on election day, especially in non-presidential years. Hence, the preferred method among many pollsters is to screen for LIKELY voters, not simply registered voters. Likely voters tend to lean even more pro-Republican than do registered voters.) Evidence suggests that 2010 may be even a more pro-Republican year than 1994 or 2002 or any other year since Gallup began asking this question in 1962.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/127439/Election-2010-Key-Indicators.aspx
But does the mood favor not just Republicans in general, but specific Republicans in specific races? Congressional polling is harder to find and is not often released publicly this far in advance of election day. But numerous statewide senate polls have been conducted and do confirm a shifting of the general electorate and Independents in particular toward Republicans.
Using the most recent publicly available statewide polling data from one particular Democratic polling firm (Public Policy Polling), we find that Republicans more often than not lead Democrats among independents -- sometimes by commanding double-digit leads.
Among independents:
Ky: Rand Paul (R) leads Conway (D) 44-29
MO: Roy Blunt (R) leads Carnahan (D) 47-35
NC:
Burr (R) leads Cunningham (D) 41-32
Burr (R) leads Marshall (D) 40-38
CO:
Bennet (D) leads Norton (R) 42-40
Buck (R) leads Bennet (D) 40-39
Bennet (D) leads Wiens (R) 39-35
Norton (R) leads Romanoff (D) 40-35
Buck (R) leads Romanoff (D) 36-34
Romanoff (D) leads Wiens (R) 35-33
OH:
Portman (R) leads Fisher (D) 37-25
Portman (R) also led Brunner (D) 37-25
PA:
Sestak (D) leads Toomey (R) 35-34
Toomey (R) led Specter (D) 41-38
IL: Kirk (R) leads Giannoulias (D) 33-30
NV:
Lowden (R) leads Reid 62-27
Tarkanian (R) leads Reid 55-30
Lowden (R) leads Berkley 55-24
Tarkanian (R) leads Berkley 53-27
Lowden (R) leads Goodman 48-30
Tarkanian (R) leads Goodman 50-30
Lowden (R) leads Miller 51-19
Tarkanian (R) leads Miller 50-18
AR:
Boozman (R) leads Lincoln 66-20
Boozman (R) leads Halter 56-18
NH:
Ayotte (R) leads Hodes (D) 49-34
Binnie (R) leads Hodes (D) 46-36
Binder (R) leads Hodes (D) 39-37
Lamontagne (R) ties Hodes 38-38
FL: Crist (I) 35 - Rubio (R) 24 - Meek (D) 22
Based on this sample of polls, top priorities for conservatives, Republicans, and friends of liberty would be Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey) and Illinois (Mark Kirk) and Colorado (nominee yet to be determined). Mark Kirk may not be the ideal candidate, but we are so close to electing a new Republican majority in BOTH houses of Congress that we need to keep our eyes on the prize. As flawed a candidate as Kirk may be, he is so much better than the mob banker Alexi Giannoulias.
http://www.toomeyforsenate.com
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