homebuilder D.R. Horton had their conference call with investors. The homebuilder confirmed what free-market economists had said all along: the tax credit was a failure and we would be better off without another such gimmick.
28% of "buyers" canceled their orders. D.R. Horton's CEO is not surprised by these horrid numbers and expresses relief that the distortion was not actually worse. "I was surprised it only increased to 28%."
Looking forward, "The next 12 to 24 months will be challenging in the homebuilding industry."
As unemployment and lagging income catch up with consumers and businesses, we may see more defaults and bankruptcies. Personal bankruptcies rose again in July, to the highest rate since 2005.
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/08/personal-bankruptcy-filings-july-2010.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/dr-horton-conference-call-comments-no.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/personal-bankruptcy-filings-up-9-in.html
Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Stocks heading lower
US Stocks show signs of heading lower, and not just for a day or two.
The S+P developed a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern, then broke down through the neck line.
The Dow Industrials show the same complex head-and-shoulders reversal with a breakdown below 11000. The Nasdaq Composite also shows the same head-and-shoulders reversal with a breakdown below 2460. The Russell 2000 also has broken down from a head-and-shoulders with rising volume on the downturn.
Russell 1000 growth has the same breakdown from a head-and-shoulders, as does the Russell 1000 value. Nasdaq high-tech and Nasdaq ex-tech both show the breakdown following a head-and-shoulders.
Dow Transports broke down from a multiple top pattern, with a lower MACD on the downturn showing the capability to go lower.
The Dow Utilities, already a weak sector on anticipation of higher interest rates, broke down from a multiple rising base pattern. Again, the lower MACD shows more ability to go lower.
DJ Wilshire Total Market index has also broken down below a head-and-shoulders top. DJ Wilshire Real Estate Investment Trust also had a breakdown from a rising base climax top. DJ Wilshire International Real Estate has shown even more weakness, breaking support on a gap down May 4 and following with another gap down May 5 (on extremely negative MACD).
The breakdowns are clearly visible on both the DJ Wilshire Large Cap Growth and Small Cap Growth indexes, as well as the Large Cap Value and Small Cap Value Indexes.
SLV also had a significant breakdown from a rounded top, below $17.50.
PALL (Palladium) has also had a significant breakdown.
On daily charts, the indexes have not had so many down days in months. A correction is coming. And tight credit brings down numerous overly inflated assets simultaneously.
Update: As stocks worldwide moved lower, gold has surged to a new high.
The S+P developed a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern, then broke down through the neck line.
The Dow Industrials show the same complex head-and-shoulders reversal with a breakdown below 11000. The Nasdaq Composite also shows the same head-and-shoulders reversal with a breakdown below 2460. The Russell 2000 also has broken down from a head-and-shoulders with rising volume on the downturn.
Russell 1000 growth has the same breakdown from a head-and-shoulders, as does the Russell 1000 value. Nasdaq high-tech and Nasdaq ex-tech both show the breakdown following a head-and-shoulders.
Dow Transports broke down from a multiple top pattern, with a lower MACD on the downturn showing the capability to go lower.
The Dow Utilities, already a weak sector on anticipation of higher interest rates, broke down from a multiple rising base pattern. Again, the lower MACD shows more ability to go lower.
DJ Wilshire Total Market index has also broken down below a head-and-shoulders top. DJ Wilshire Real Estate Investment Trust also had a breakdown from a rising base climax top. DJ Wilshire International Real Estate has shown even more weakness, breaking support on a gap down May 4 and following with another gap down May 5 (on extremely negative MACD).
The breakdowns are clearly visible on both the DJ Wilshire Large Cap Growth and Small Cap Growth indexes, as well as the Large Cap Value and Small Cap Value Indexes.
SLV also had a significant breakdown from a rounded top, below $17.50.
PALL (Palladium) has also had a significant breakdown.
On daily charts, the indexes have not had so many down days in months. A correction is coming. And tight credit brings down numerous overly inflated assets simultaneously.
Update: As stocks worldwide moved lower, gold has surged to a new high.
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